Disruption Scenario

What happens if the Cape of Good Hope closes?

Closing Cape of Good Hope halts 5 Mb/d. Bypass routes can take 0 Mb/d, leaving 5 Mb/d displaced — 4.9% of world liquids demand.

Chokepoint detail →Open on the map →

Mb/d halted (full closure)

Mb/d bypass capacity

Mb/d displaced (4.9%)

Model the closure

100% halted

OpenPartialFull closure

Mb/d halted

Mb/d bypass

Mb/d displaced · 4.9%

Bypass routes

No bypass exists — this route is itself the diversion of last resort for others.

No bypass exists for this route. It is itself the diversion of last resort for other chokepoints.
No stock cover reported to JODI by China — absent from the cover ranking, not necessarily well covered.

Thinnest stock cover

Exposed importers holding fewer than 30 days of consumption in reported stock, from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative. Thin cover is who feels a sustained disruption soonest — not a prediction that they will.

India25 days · 2026-03

Refining capacity exposed

The exposed importing countries hold 21,861 kb/d of refining capacity across 83 refineries. This is capacity that sits in exposed countries — not a claim about which refineries buy crude through this route, which is sourcing data the atlas does not hold.

Indicative planning arithmetic over published transit volumes and nameplate bypass capacity. It is not a supply forecast: it models neither price response, demand destruction, inventory release, spare production capacity, nor how quickly tonnage can physically reposition. Nameplate capacity is consistently higher than day-one deliverable capacity.