Disruption Scenario

What happens if the Turkish Straits closes?

Closing Turkish Straits halts 3 Mb/d. Bypass routes can take 0.3 Mb/d, leaving 2.7 Mb/d displaced — 2.6% of world liquids demand.

Chokepoint detail →Open on the map →

Mb/d halted (full closure)

0.3

Mb/d bypass capacity

2.7

Mb/d displaced (2.6%)

Model the closure

100% halted

OpenPartialFull closure

Mb/d halted

0.3

Mb/d bypass

2.7

Mb/d displaced · 2.6%

Bypass routes

Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan+0.3 Mb/d
Caspian crude to the Mediterranean without entering the Black Sea. Largely full already.

Refining capacity exposed

The exposed importing countries hold 3,690 kb/d of refining capacity across 22 refineries. This is capacity that sits in exposed countries — not a claim about which refineries buy crude through this route, which is sourcing data the atlas does not hold.

Indicative planning arithmetic over published transit volumes and nameplate bypass capacity. It is not a supply forecast: it models neither price response, demand destruction, inventory release, spare production capacity, nor how quickly tonnage can physically reposition. Nameplate capacity is consistently higher than day-one deliverable capacity.